WCSE

A Method for Predicting Atmospheric Temperature in Navigation Safety

Abstract— The change of atmospheric temperature is closely related to the safety of ship sailing, so it is of great significance to make accurate prediction of atmospheric temperature. In this paper, the atmospheric temperature data of the first three months of 2016 are modeled and predicted using the autoregressive quadrature moving average model (ARIMA), using the high-precision atmospheric temperature data set of th ERA-5 reanalysis data set provided by the European Weather Forecast Center. The prediction results show that the mean absolute error of single-step prediction is about 0.4196, and the short-term prediction accuracy is high, which can be used as an effective method for atmospheric temperature prediction.

Index Terms— Time series forecasting, Atmospheric temperature, ARIMA models.

Liwan Zhou
Wuhan Huazhong Numerical Control co.,ltd
Mi Yan
Wuhan University of TechnologySchool of Automation
Xin Luo
Wuhan University of TechnologySchool of Automation
Shengwei Li
Wuhan University of TechnologySchool of Automation
Lei Wang
Wuhan University of TechnologySchool of Automation

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Cite: Liwan Zhou, Mi Yan, Xin Luo, Shengwei Li, Lei Wang, " A Method for Predicting Atmospheric Temperature in Navigation Safety, " WCSE 2022 Spring Event: 2022 9th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Applications, pp. 1312-1320, Sanya, China, April 15-18, 2022.